Growth Lab · sales tax through Jul 2026 · permits through Aug 2026 · population July 1, 2025
How NWA is growing, read six ways
Same public numbers as the rest of the site, turned sideways: are cities adding spending as fast as people, who is speeding up, where growth is moving, and how fast each city compounds. Arithmetic only; nothing here is a forecast.
1 · People vs spending, 5 years
Are cities adding spending as fast as people?
20 of 21 cities grew local sales-tax collections faster than their population over the last five years (above the diagonal), so spending per resident rose. Cities under the line added people faster than taxable spending: often bedroom communities whose residents shop elsewhere.
Horizontal: yearly population growth, 2020–2025 (Census estimates). Vertical: yearly growth in 12-month local sales-tax distributions, five years to Jul 2026 (Arkansas DFA). Dot size = population. Hollow dots had a 40%+ jump in one year, usually a new local tax or rate change, not spending.
Core citySmaller cityEdge city
2 · Momentum
Who is speeding up, who is slowing
Growth rate now vs a year ago, 12-month sales-tax totals. Among core cities: Bentonville speeding up (−2.8% → −0.4%); Rogers steady (+2.2% → +3.6%); Siloam Springs steady (+3.3% → +4.5%); Fayetteville steady (+4.5% → +2.7%); Bella Vista slowing (+12.6% → +9.0%); Springdale slowing (+6.3% → −1.8%). Across core and smaller cities, 5 are speeding up and 11 slowing by 2+ points.
| City | 2 years ago | A year ago | Now | Reading | Growth rate, last 36 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elm Springs | +13.6% | −0.4% | +18.8% | ↗ speeding up | |
| Cave Springs | +14.9% | +7.8% | +18.7% | ↗ speeding up | |
| Little Flock | +5.9% | +5.9% | +12.2% | ↗ speeding up | |
| Farmington | +7.1% | +2.6% | +7.2% | ↗ speeding up | |
| Bentonville | −0.1% | −2.8% | −0.4% | ↗ speeding up | |
| Rogers | +8.4% | +2.2% | +3.6% | → steady | |
| Siloam Springs | +3.9% | +3.3% | +4.5% | → steady | |
| Goshen | +6.7% | +9.2% | +9.9% | → steady | |
| Eureka Springs | +2.7% | +2.1% | +2.8% | → steady | |
| Prairie Grove | +3.8% | +10.9% | +9.4% | → steady | |
| Fayetteville | +0.4% | +4.5% | +2.7% | → steady | |
| Johnson | +4.6% | +11.8% | +9.4% | ↘ slowing | |
| Tontitown | +18.5% | +6.9% | +3.7% | ↘ slowing | |
| Pea Ridge | +23.1% | +6.8% | +3.2% | ↘ slowing | |
| Bella Vista | +6.6% | +12.6% | +9.0% | ↘ slowing | |
| Centerton | +11.4% | +6.9% | +3.0% | ↘ slowing | |
| Lincoln | −0.4% | +9.1% | +4.1% | ↘ slowing | |
| Elkins | +3.3% | +8.8% | +2.1% | ↘ slowing | |
| Springdale | +1.9% | +6.3% | −1.8% | ↘ slowing | |
| Highfill | +70.2% | +20.7% | +4.8% | ↘ slowing | |
| Greenlandrate change? | — | +52.8% | +36.2% | ↘ slowing | |
| Lowell | +2.3% | +18.5% | −0.9% | ↘ slowing | |
| West Fork | 0.0% | +13.7% | −6.0% | ↘ slowing |
Growth rate = 12 months of local sales-tax distributions to that month vs the 12 before (Arkansas DFA). "Speeding up" / "slowing" = 2+ percentage points faster / slower than a year ago. Describes what happened; not a forecast.
3 · Ten years in one grid
When the region ran hot, and when it cooled
Each square is the 12 months to that month vs the 12 before. Navy = growing, rust = shrinking; darker = faster. Latest: core-6 sales tax +1.7% (Jul 2026); homes permitted across NWA −0.7% (Aug 2026).
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 4 | |||||||||||
| 2017 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 10 |
| 2018 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 0 |
| 2019 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 2020 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
| 2021 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 19 |
| 2022 | 18 | 20 | 17 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 |
| 2023 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 9 |
| 2024 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2025 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| 2026 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 9 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 5 | ||||||
| 2018 | 16 | 16 | 24 | 27 | 41 | 30 | 31 | 27 | 23 | 28 | 24 | 28 |
| 2019 | 0 | 7 | -9 | -14 | -12 | -14 | -11 | 13 | 17 | 17 | 21 | 22 |
| 2020 | 40 | 24 | 42 | 48 | 42 | 49 | 42 | -4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 2 |
| 2021 | 3 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 25 | 19 | 13 | -1 | 3 |
| 2022 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 |
| 2023 | 5 | 0 | -3 | -11 | -15 | -16 | -12 | -17 | -13 | -9 | -5 | -4 |
| 2024 | -6 | -5 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 13 |
| 2025 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 24 | 28 | 20 | 17 | 12 | 10 |
| 2026 | 16 | 15 | 20 | 10 | 15 | 12 | 12 | -1 |
−15% or worseshrinkingabout flatgrowing+15% or moreTHE 479 REPORT · the479report.com
5 · Where new homes go
Is growth moving outward?
Smaller cities' share of the homes NWA permitted peaked in 2021 at 39.7%. In 2026 so far it is 24.8%, with the core cities at 72.0%: new building has swung back toward the core cities, much of it apartments.
Housing units authorized by building permits, by the city's tier on this site (core 6, smaller cities, edge towns). Census Building Permits Survey. 2026 is partial (through Aug 2026).
6 · The growth ladder
How fast each city compounds
Compound yearly growth in 12-month local sales-tax collections over 1, 3, 5 and 10 years, next to population growth, collections per resident and homes permitted per 1,000 residents. Sort any column. A city flagged "rate change?" had a year of 40%+ growth, usually a new tax, so its multi-year rate overstates spending growth.
| Highfillrate change? | $2.51M | +4.8% | +29.1% | +35.0% | — | +17.1% | $682 | 12 |
| Pea Ridgerate change? | $4.33M | +3.2% | +10.7% | +29.3% | +22.2% | +11.0% | $385 | 39.7 |
| Sulphur Springsrate change? | $0.13M | +8.5% | +36.1% | +27.5% | +19.9% | −0.2% | $259 | 0 |
| Johnsonrate change? | $2.66M | +9.4% | +8.5% | +23.7% | — | +0.4% | $721 | 29.3 |
| Greenlandrate change? | $1.37M | +36.2% | — | +20.5% | +19.6% | +0.1% | $890 | 0 |
| Decaturrate change? | $0.61M | −1.8% | +15.5% | +16.7% | +8.8% | +1.1% | $323 | 35.9 |
| Springtownrate change? | $0.01M | +29.2% | +32.7% | +14.7% | +2.0% | +2.1% | $143 | — |
| Elm Springsrate change? | $0.34M | +18.8% | +10.3% | +11.7% | +15.3% | +3.5% | $118 | 0 |
| Lincolnrate change? | $1.43M | +4.1% | +4.2% | +11.7% | +11.2% | +0.8% | $605 | 5.9 |
| Gravette | $2.07M | +16.5% | +8.3% | +10.7% | +7.3% | +1.7% | $532 | 6.4 |
| Cave Springsrate change? | $2.80M | +18.7% | +13.7% | +10.4% | +23.7% | +2.6% | $418 | 10.6 |
| Bella Vistarate change? | $10.3M | +9.0% | +9.4% | +10.1% | +19.0% | +2.7% | $299 | 20.6 |
| Tontitownrate change? | $6.74M | +3.7% | +9.5% | +9.6% | +16.7% | +11.4% | $838 | 10.9 |
| Centerton | $7.30M | +3.0% | +7.0% | +9.1% | +12.7% | +8.3% | $269 | 14.8 |
| Goshenrate change? | $0.59M | +9.9% | +8.6% | +9.1% | — | +2.6% | $243 | 4.2 |
| Farmington | $4.15M | +7.2% | +5.6% | +8.9% | — | +6.9% | $390 | 21.4 |
| Garfieldrate change? | $0.36M | +0.2% | +9.9% | +8.5% | +13.3% | +0.9% | $564 | 12.7 |
| Rogers | $66.7M | +3.6% | +4.7% | +7.3% | +6.6% | +1.9% | $867 | 9 |
| Elkins | $2.23M | +2.1% | +4.7% | +7.2% | +8.6% | +2.8% | $534 | 16.7 |
| Little Flock | $0.34M | +12.2% | +8.0% | +6.7% | +9.0% | −0.1% | $113 | 10.2 |
| Springdale | $52.5M | −1.8% | +2.1% | +6.5% | +6.9% | +0.8% | $579 | 6 |
| Siloam Springs | $13.8M | +4.5% | +3.9% | +5.6% | +6.5% | +4.0% | $648 | 8.4 |
| West Fork | $1.25M | −6.0% | +2.2% | +5.6% | — | +0.3% | $527 | 7.2 |
| Gentryrate change? | $2.12M | −11.0% | +5.3% | +5.6% | +13.0% | +4.9% | $433 | 30.4 |
| Fayetteville | $70.3M | +2.7% | +2.5% | +5.3% | +5.2% | +2.4% | $659 | 21.4 |
| Lowellrate change? | $9.48M | −0.9% | +6.3% | +5.1% | +10.0% | +4.1% | $778 | 17.6 |
| Bentonville | $52.6M | −0.4% | −1.1% | +5.0% | +8.4% | +2.8% | $834 | 28.8 |
| Avoca | $0.15M | −4.5% | −0.1% | +4.6% | +6.2% | +2.4% | $284 | 31.2 |
| Eureka Springs | $4.29M | +2.8% | +2.5% | +4.0% | +4.9% | +0.8% | $1,900 | — |
| Prairie Grove | $3.74M | +9.4% | +8.0% | — | +13.6% | +4.8% | $415 | 20.8 |
| Winslowrate change? | $0.16M | +2.2% | +6.2% | — | — | −0.2% | $430 | — |
Sales tax: Arkansas DFA local distributions, 12 months to Jul 2026; yr/yr = compound yearly rate. People: Census estimates, 2020–2025. Tax per resident mixes spending with each city's tax rate, which differs city to city. Homes per 1,000: units authorized in the 12 months to Aug 2026 per current resident.
More: the Growth Pressure Score ranks every city on four of these signals at once; compare cities side by side; each city page has its own charts.