479 Growth Pressure Score · 30 cities · data to 2026-07
Where pressure is building
One number per city for how hard growth is pushing on it right now, relative to the rest of Northwest Arkansas. Four public signals, weighted and shown in full: registers, rooftops, residents and roads. It measures momentum between cities. It does not forecast prices. For six more ways to read growth (people vs spending, who's speeding up, a 10-year heatmap, share shifts), see the Growth Lab.
Every city, ranked
score = weighted percentiles among 30 cities
| # | City | Score | Sales-tax momentum 30% | Housing pipeline 30% | Population growth 20% | Road investment 20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pea Ridge Very high | 77 | +3.2% | 39.7 / 1,000 | +69.9% | $1.1K |
| 2 | Cave Springs High | 71 | +18.7% | 10.6 / 1,000 | +16.3% | $19.3K |
| 3 | Johnson High | 69 | +9.4% | 29.3 / 1,000 | +2.4% | $1.3K |
| 4 | Tontitown High | 67 | +3.7% | 10.9 / 1,000 | +87.8% | $14.0K |
| 5 | Prairie Grove High | 66 | +9.4% | 20.8 / 1,000 | +27.4% | $25 |
| 6 | Elm Springs High | 61 | +18.8% | 0.0 / 1,000 | +20.3% | $11.1K |
| 7 | Bella Vista High | 60 | +9.0% | 20.6 / 1,000 | +14.7% | $222 |
| 8 | Farmington High | 60 | +7.2% | 21.4 / 1,000 | +40.5% | $0 |
| 9 | Centerton High | 59 | +3.0% | 14.8 / 1,000 | +52.1% | $639 |
| 10 | Bentonville High | 57 | -0.4% | 28.8 / 1,000 | +16.3% | $1.0K |
| 11 | Fayetteville High | 56 | +2.7% | 21.4 / 1,000 | +13.1% | $856 |
| 12 | Lowell High | 56 | -0.9% | 17.6 / 1,000 | +23.5% | $1.1K |
| 13 | Gentry Moderate | 54 | -11.0% | 30.4 / 1,000 | +28.9% | $498 |
| 14 | Springtown Moderate | 54 | +29.2% | no data | +10.7% | $0 |
| 15 | Decatur Moderate | 50 | -1.8% | 35.9 / 1,000 | +5.8% | $545 |
| 16 | Siloam Springs Moderate | 49 | +4.5% | 8.4 / 1,000 | +22.4% | $242 |
| 17 | Elkins Moderate | 48 | +2.1% | 16.7 / 1,000 | +16.3% | $335 |
| 18 | Avoca Moderate | 47 | -4.5% | 31.2 / 1,000 | +12.4% | $67 |
| 19 | Garfield Moderate | 45 | +0.2% | 12.7 / 1,000 | +5.2% | $1.2K |
| 20 | Rogers Moderate | 43 | +3.6% | 9.0 / 1,000 | +10.5% | $615 |
| 21 | Highfill Moderate | 40 | +4.8% | 12.0 / 1,000 | no data | $0 |
| 22 | Gravette Moderate | 40 | +16.5% | 6.4 / 1,000 | +9.4% | $0 |
| 23 | Goshen Moderate | 38 | +9.9% | 4.2 / 1,000 | +14.6% | $0 |
| 24 | Little Flock Moderate | 37 | +12.2% | 10.2 / 1,000 | -0.5% | $0 |
| 25 | Lincoln Moderate | 37 | +4.1% | 5.9 / 1,000 | +3.7% | $700 |
| 26 | Greenland Low | 32 | +36.2% | 0.0 / 1,000 | +0.1% | $0 |
| 27 | Springdale Low | 32 | -1.8% | 6.0 / 1,000 | +3.9% | $3.2K |
| 28 | Sulphur Springs Low | 20 | +8.5% | 0.0 / 1,000 | -1.2% | $0 |
| 29 | Winslow Low | 14 | +2.2% | no data | -1.1% | $0 |
| 30 | West Fork Low | 12 | -6.0% | 7.2 / 1,000 | +1.3% | $0 |
Core cities in bold. Bars show each city's percentile among the cities that have that input; the number under each bar is the raw value.
How it's built
- Sales-tax momentum · 30%trailing-12 change
- Housing pipeline · 30%units per 1,000 residents, 12 mo
- Population growth · 20%2010→2020
- Road investment · 20%TIP $ per resident
Weighted percentile ranks among NWA cities: sales-tax momentum 30%, homes authorized per 1,000 residents (latest 12 months) 30%, population growth since the 2020 census 20%, programmed ARDOT TIP dollars inside city limits per resident 20%. Residents = the latest Census estimate. Missing components are re-weighted over what a city has; a city needs at least three.
Measures momentum relative to other NWA cities. It is not a price forecast, not a prediction of returns, and not investment advice.
Version 1.1 · population from Census Vintage 2025
- v1.1 · 2026-09-29 Population growth now measured from the 2020 census to the latest Census estimate (was 2010 to 2020). Per-resident measures (homes per 1,000, road dollars per resident) use the latest estimate instead of the 2020 count. Homes count every building size (2-4 unit buildings were left out). A town whose population more than doubled (usually an annexation) gets no population component.
- v1.0 · 2026-09-23 First release: four components, weights 30/30/20/20.
Why these four: sales tax shows spending already arriving, housing permits show rooftops on the way, population growth shows the long trend, and programmed road money shows where the state is investing next. Small towns can swing on a single new local tax or one subdivision; that's why every input is shown.
Watching a city? The Tuesday issue flags when a city's score moves.