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10Y5.31%+3bp2026-10-052Y4.84%+1bp2026-10-0530Y MTG7.28%+25bp2026-10-01SOFR3.89%+1bp2026-10-05FED FUNDS3.75%+12bp2026-09CPI3.7% y/y2026-08US UNEMP4.20%+10bp2026-09NWA UNEMP3.10%-10bp2026-08NWA JOBS317,895-7952026-08FRED · Freddie Mac · BLS · data 2026-10-06

National context · free

Rates & capital markets

The backdrop every NWA deal is priced against. Each tile shows its source and as-of date; charts load on demand.

10-year Treasury
5.31%
▲ 3bp
FRED DGS10 (U.S. Treasury) · 2026-10-05
2-year Treasury
4.84%
▲ 1bp
FRED DGS2 (U.S. Treasury) · 2026-10-05
10y–2y spread
0.48%
▲ 1bp
FRED T10Y2Y (10Y minus 2Y) · 2026-10-06
SOFR
3.89%
▲ 1bp
FRED SOFR (NY Fed) · 2026-10-05
30-year mortgage
7.28%
▲ 25bp
Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED MORTGAGE30US · 2026-10-01
15-year mortgage
6.60%
▲ 18bp
Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED MORTGAGE15US · 2026-10-01
Fed funds (effective)
3.75%
FRED FEDFUNDS (effective rate, monthly avg) · 2026-09
CRE loans, all banks
$3,138B
FRED CREACBW027SBOG (CRE loans, all commercial banks) · 2026-09-23
Treasury curve
10-year, 2-year, and the spread
10-year Treasury: FRED DGS10 (U.S. Treasury) (as of 2026-10-05) · 2-year Treasury: FRED DGS2 (U.S. Treasury) (as of 2026-10-05) · 10y–2y spread: FRED T10Y2Y (10Y minus 2Y) (as of 2026-10-06)
Data through 2026-10-06 · Free to reuse with the credit line.
Mortgage rates
Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey
30-year mortgage: Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED MORTGAGE30US (as of 2026-10-01) · 15-year mortgage: Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED MORTGAGE15US (as of 2026-10-01)
Data through 2026-10-01 · Free to reuse with the credit line.
Policy rate & SOFR
Fed funds effective vs. the CRE floating index
Fed funds (effective): FRED FEDFUNDS (effective rate, monthly avg) (as of 2026-09) · SOFR: FRED SOFR (NY Fed) (as of 2026-10-05)
Data through 2026-10-05 · Free to reuse with the credit line.
CRE credit
Bank CRE loans outstanding vs. delinquency rate
CRE loans, all banks: FRED CREACBW027SBOG (CRE loans, all commercial banks) (as of 2026-09-23) · CRE loan delinquency: FRED DRCRELEXFACBS (CRE loan delinquency, all banks) (as of 2026-Q2)
Data through 2026-Q2 · Free to reuse with the credit line.

Inflation, jobs, housing supply

BLS · Census via FRED
CPI (all urban)
334.1
FRED CPIAUCSL (CPI-U, 1982-84=100) · 2026-08
US unemployment
4.20%
FRED UNRATE (BLS) · 2026-09
US housing starts (k, SAAR)
1,275
FRED HOUST (thousands of units, SAAR) · 2026-08
US building permits (k, SAAR)
1,403
FRED PERMIT (thousands of units, SAAR) · 2026-08
US housing starts vs. permits
Thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate
US housing starts (k, SAAR): FRED HOUST (thousands of units, SAAR) (as of 2026-08) · US building permits (k, SAAR): FRED PERMIT (thousands of units, SAAR) (as of 2026-08)
Data through 2026-08 · Free to reuse with the credit line.
Unemployment: US vs. NWA
Percent, seasonally adjusted
US unemployment: FRED UNRATE (BLS) (as of 2026-09) · Unemployment, NWA MSA (SA): BLS via FRED FASUR (MSA, seasonally adjusted) (as of 2026-08)
Data through 2026-09 · Free to reuse with the credit line.

Northwest Arkansas MSA

Fayetteville–Springdale–Rogers, CBSA 22220
FHFA house price index, NWA MSA
All-transactions index, quarterly (1995 Q1 = 100)
FHFA house price index (NWA MSA): FHFA All-Transactions HPI via FRED ATNHPIUS22220Q (Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers MSA) (as of 2026-Q2)
Data through 2026-Q2 · Free to reuse with the credit line.
NWA employed persons
BLS LAUS, monthly
Employed persons, NWA MSA: BLS LAUS via FRED (MSA employed persons) (as of 2026-08)
Data through 2026-08 · Free to reuse with the credit line.

What this means for NWA owners · draft

The 10-year sits at 5.31% (as of 2026-10-05) and the 30-year mortgage at 7.28% (2026-10-01). The 10y–2y spread is 0.48 points. The cost of the debt behind every offer is set here — before any local number moves.

Generated from the figures above; Andrew edits before it carries his byline. Market commentary, not advice.

NWA against its peers

FHFA All-Transactions HPI and BLS LAUS employed persons, via FRED
House prices, re-based
FHFA All-Transactions index · 2019-Q4 = 100
FHFA All-Transactions House Price Index by metro, via FRED (ATNHPIUS + CBSA code). Re-based so every metro starts at 100 in the last pre-pandemic quarter.
Data through 2026-04 · Free to reuse with the credit line.
Employed residents, re-based
BLS LAUS · December 2019 = 100 · not seasonally adjusted
BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics, employed persons by metro, via FRED. Monthly and unadjusted, so expect a seasonal sawtooth.
Data through 2026-08 · Free to reuse with the credit line.
House prices since 2019-Q4ChangeLatest
1. Northwest Arkansas+86.2%2026-04
2. Huntsville+72%2026-04
3. Boise+71.2%2026-04
4. Nashville+70.3%2026-04
5. Raleigh+67.9%2026-04
6. Des Moines+48.8%2026-04
7. Austin+46.5%2026-04
Employment since Dec 2019ChangeLatest
1. Austin+24.3%2026-08
2. Northwest Arkansas+21.2%2026-08
3. Raleigh+16.3%2026-08
4. Huntsville+16.2%2026-08
5. Boise+14.8%2026-08
6. Nashville+8.3%2026-08
7. Des Moines+5.5%2026-08

Peer set: metros NWA is routinely benchmarked against for growth and corporate relocation. Ranking is arithmetic on published values; no forecast is implied.

The local read, every Tuesday. Rates are the backdrop; what they do to Rogers strip centers and Springdale warehouses is the newsletter.