Reports · Ten-year · Jan 2016 – Dec 2025
Northwest Arkansas, 2016–2025
Local sales-tax receipts across 15 NWA cities (excluding 7 with a likely new or changed local tax) rose 87.7% from 2016 to 2025 (+7.3% a year). Receipts totaled $2.29B across all 22 reporting cities.
What happened
generated from the data
- Local sales-tax receipts across 15 NWA cities (excluding 7 with a likely new or changed local tax) rose 87.7% from 2016 to 2025 (+7.3% a year). Receipts totaled $2.29B across all 22 reporting cities.
- Among the Core cities, Bentonville led at +118.9% and Fayetteville trailed at +63.0%.
- The fastest register growth was outside the Core: Garfield at +236.4%.
- 7 cities show moves large enough to reflect a new or changed local tax rather than spending (Cave Springs, Pea Ridge, Bella Vista, Sulphur Springs…); they are marked in the table and left out of the rankings above.
- Builders pulled permits for 63,268 residential units region-wide, up 105.4% comparing 2025 with 2016.
- The 30-year mortgage rate averaged 4.77% in the period.
- Employed residents in the NWA metro averaged 305,783 in 2025, up 25.3% from 2016.
- Momentum at period end (12-month sales-tax growth vs a year earlier): speeding up in Bella Vista, Siloam Springs, Bentonville; slowing in Rogers.
- The metro counted 307,300 jobs in December 2025, up 63,900 from December 2016; professional & business services added the most (+15,900) (BLS, preliminary for recent months).
Every sentence above is a fixed template filled with computed values; no figure is typed by hand. Trend arrows compare this period with the three before it of the same length: they describe, they don't forecast. Market commentary, not advice.
Demand: the registers
local sales tax · 2016 → 2025
Supply: homes permitted
| Place | Units | First→last year |
|---|---|---|
| Fayetteville | 12,391 | +79.1% |
| Bentonville | 11,326 | +132.8% |
| Rogers | 7,001 | +33.0% |
| Centerton | 6,028 | +81.3% |
| Bella Vista | 4,289 | +702.0% |
| Springdale | 3,436 | +40.1% |
| Siloam Springs | 2,833 | +179.2% |
| Pea Ridge | 2,800 | +275.0% |
| Tontitown | 2,768 | -40.3% |
| Farmington | 1,917 | +682.9% |
| Lowell | 1,670 | +92.3% |
| Prairie Grove | 1,617 | +95.1% |
| Cave Springs | 1,208 | -66.7% |
| Highfill | 1,018 | small base |
| Gentry | 886 | +1370.0% |
| Elkins | 563 | +256.5% |
| Elm Springs | 384 | -83.9% |
| Gravette | 332 | small base |
| Goshen | 290 | -46.1% |
| Little Flock | 131 | +63.6% |
| Johnson | 127 | small base |
| Lincoln | 88 | small base |
| Decatur | 69 | small base |
| West Fork | 61 | -20.0% |
| Greenland | 25 | small base |
| Sulphur Springs | 10 | small base |
Census Building Permits Survey, residential units authorized (all building sizes). Places with zero units in the period are omitted; changes off fewer than 10 units show as "small base".
Bentonville's permit records in this project begin 2026-04-01. For earlier periods, the Census homes-permitted table (left) covers every city.
City of Bentonville permits-issued reports (public record). Valuation as printed by the city. Rogers, Springdale and Fayetteville join as their records load.
Economy
| Measure | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Employed residents, NWA metro | 305,783 | +25.3% |
| Unemployment rate, NWA metro | 2.95% | window avg |
| Unemployment rate, U.S. | 4.58% | window avg |
| FHFA house price index, NWA | 2025-Q4 | +128.2% |
BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics and FHFA All-Transactions HPI via FRED. Metro = Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO (includes Madison Co. AR and McDonald Co. MO).
Capital markets
| Rate or balance | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 30-year mortgage, average | 4.77% | |
| 10-year Treasury, average | 2.69% | |
| 2-year Treasury, average | 2.31% | |
| CRE loans at U.S. banks | $3.06T | |
| CRE loan delinquency, U.S. banks | 1.58% | 2025-Q4 |
Freddie Mac PMMS, U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve (H.8; charge-off and delinquency rates) via FRED. National series: the cost and availability of the money that buys NWA property.
Home values by ZIP
2016 → 2025
| ZIP | Change |
|---|---|
| 72722 Decatur | +151.2% |
| 72712 Bentonville | +134.8% |
| 72756 Rogers | +125.6% |
| … | |
| 72959 Winslow | +89.7% |
| 72744 Lincoln | +92.3% |
| 72701 Fayetteville | +98.4% |
| Benton County | +121.1% |
| Washington County | +105.7% |
FHFA house price index (a change in value, not a price), 24 ZIPs with an index. Strongest three, weakest three, then each county. Every ZIP.
Growth patterns
core cities · 12-month sales tax at period end
| City | Growth now | A year earlier | Momentum | Share of core 6 | A year earlier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bella Vista | +11.3% | +7.6% | ↗ speeding up | 3.7% | 3.4% |
| Siloam Springs | +6.5% | +2.8% | ↗ speeding up | 5.2% | 5.0% |
| Fayetteville | +3.9% | +2.3% | → steady | 26.5% | 25.9% |
| Springdale | +3.7% | +4.6% | → steady | 20.4% | 20.0% |
| Rogers | +0.7% | +6.8% | ↘ slowing | 24.7% | 24.9% |
| Bentonville | -5.1% | -9.6% | ↗ speeding up | 19.5% | 20.9% |
Growth = the 12 months of local sales-tax distributions to 2025-12 vs the 12 before (Arkansas DFA); momentum compares that rate with the same reading a year earlier (±2 points). Share = each city's part of the core-6 total. More ways to read growth in the Growth Lab.
City by city
22 cities · Core first
| City | Sales tax | First→last | 24 months | Homes permitted | Per 1,000 residents | Growth score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fayetteville | $550.3M | +63.0% | 12,391 | 131.4 | 56 | |
| Rogers | $494.7M | +77.6% | 7,001 | 100.1 | 43 | |
| Bentonville | $407.0M | +118.9% | 11,326 | 209.1 | 57 | |
| Springdale | $400.8M | +94.2% | 3,436 | 39.3 | 32 | |
| Siloam Springs | $103.3M | +81.2% | 2,833 | 162.8 | 49 | |
| Bella Vistatax change? | $54.3M | +424.5% | 4,289 | 142.5 | 60 | |
| Lowell | $63.8M | +148.1% | 1,670 | 169.7 | 56 | |
| Centerton | $46.3M | +212.2% | 6,028 | 337.3 | 59 | |
| Tontitowntax change? | $40.9M | +353.7% | 2,768 | 643.6 | 67 | |
| Eureka Springs | $33.7M | +61.5% | — | — | — | |
| Pea Ridgetax change? | $20.1M | +587.6% | 2,800 | 423.4 | 77 | |
| Gentrytax change? | $15.0M | +288.4% | 886 | 233.1 | 54 | |
| Gravette | $14.5M | +76.3% | 332 | 93.6 | 40 | |
| Cave Springstax change? | $13.4M | +607.4% | 1,208 | 209.7 | 71 | |
| West Fork | $9.5M | +165.5% | 61 | 26.2 | 12 | |
| Lincoln | $9.1M | +185.5% | 88 | 38.4 | 37 | |
| Decatur | $3.7M | +141.2% | 69 | 38.9 | 50 | |
| Garfield | $2.2M | +236.4% | — | — | 45 | |
| Elm Springstax change? | $1.9M | +283.4% | 384 | 162.6 | 61 | |
| Avoca | $1.2M | +88.7% | — | — | 47 | |
| Sulphur Springstax change? | $481,912 | +402.9% | 10 | 20.8 | 20 | |
| Springtown | $65,279 | +29.0% | — | — | 54 |
Sales tax: AR DFA local distributions in the window; sparkline = the 24 months ending 2025-12. Homes: Census BPS. Per 1,000 residents uses the 2020 census. Growth score is today's 479 Growth Pressure Score, not the score as of this period.
Broker-reported fundamentals
Vacancy, rent and absorption come from brokerage research, not public record. Shown as published, with the publisher named, so you can check the original.
Cushman & Wakefield / Sage Partners 2025 Market Report (Northwest Arkansas) · as of 2025-YE · source
| office: vacancy rate sage 2025 | 4.6% |
| industrial: vacancy rate sage 2025 | 6.4% |
| industrial: asking rent sage 2025 | $9.60 per square foot (record) |
| retail: vacancy rate sage 2025 | about 3.2% |
| multifamily: vacancy rate sage 2025 | 11.2% |
| multifamily: new units 2025 | more than 3,100 new units (a floor, not an exact count) |
Method and definitions
- Local sales tax
- What the state distributes back to each city from its local sales and use tax, by distribution month (about two months after the sale). Changes compare the same cities in both periods.
- Tax change?
- A city whose receipts moved 40% or more in one period, or 15% a year over several, usually adopted or changed a local tax. It's shown, and left out of rankings and region totals.
- Homes permitted
- Residential units authorized by building permits, all building sizes (Census Building Permits Survey, place level).
- 4-period trend
- Direction of this period and the three before it of the same length (least-squares slope with a small tolerance). Describes what happened; not a forecast.
- Metro
- Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO metropolitan area (CBSA 22220).
Cite this report
The 479 Report, "Northwest Arkansas Ten-year Report: 2016–2025," https://the479report.com/reports/ten-year/2016-2025/ (data through 2025-12; generated 2026-10-06).
Free to reuse with that credit. This report as JSON.
Who publishes this. The 479 Report is written by Andrew Elsass, a licensed Arkansas real estate broker (Elsass & Co Real Estate Team, Lindsey & Associates). The numbers come from public agencies; commentary is market commentary, not investment, legal or tax advice.